Ok, so as I understand it one of the factors that tells you if you’re in a Recession or Depression is the unemployment rate. Since I’ve been hearing all these people crying about how we are headed for a Depression I decided I would check the unemployment rate over the years. I can only find data back to 1948 but it’s interesting even just that far.
In 1948 the rate was around 4%. That would be considered pretty low. Over the years it’s gone up and down but the most interesting to me is when Reagan took over in 1981 the rate was 7.5%. Over the next year it went up to 10.8% by the end of 82 but then it started coming down. By the end of Reagan’s 2nd term is was 5.3%. Then Bush 1 took over and the rate slowly went up to about 7.8%. It started falling just before Clinton took over and kept falling all the way to 3.9%.
When Bush 2 took over the rate slowly went up to a little over 6% but then it came down to around 4% and then started climbing to the 6.5% it is at now.
The interesting part of this is the rate has been much higher several times in the years from 48 to now but this is the first time I can remember people thinking we are ready to enter another Depression. I understand saying we are in a Depression is not just the unemployment rate, it’s also the GDP and a few other factors but those factors are far from where they would need to be to call it that.
I think some of this is Bush Derangement Syndrome. People want it to be bad so they can point at him and say SEE?
Yes the banks are in trouble but maybe we shouldn’t bail them out. Maybe we should just let them fail and let the chips fall where they may. We might find out this country is a lot stronger than some people think. Since it’s not up to me I guess we will never know.
Working at a bank I would really like the banks not to fail. Bank failing causes mass hysteria. People take their money out because it “not safe” Idiots put their cash in mattresses, safe deposit boxes and other ridiculous places. Banks don’t have money to lend, no one gets new things. And the economy slows drastically. That’s a piece of the current problem.
btw, how do I upload my webpages to the net??
Comment by Jocelyn — Monday November 24, 2008 @ 7:45 pm
Would have to agree that this media fueled hysteria is good for the daily news. I’ve been looking at the trends in the stock market over the last 40yrs and up until 1985 the DOW had very modest growth. Between 1985 and 1995 there was what I would call phenomenal growth of 200pnt a year. But in 1995 and beyond all hell broke loose. Tech, Telecom, Internet, IPO’s, more and more average joe’s are able to put their money into 401k’s, people fueling the market with their retirement funds. It was a bubble of enormous proportions.
Link
Then we had the first burp, Telecom and Tech meltdown. Minor blip. 9/11 tragedy. Minor blip. We must put fuel back into the economy. Everyone must own their own home, Real Estate! Low interest rates! Sub-Prime lending. Commodities speculation. 1938 ring a bell? This economy is just like my kids growing pains. After the initial flurry of trying to determine if it is something deathly serious you stand back and decide to let rest and see how they feel in the morning. The Market and Financial Inst. needed a correction. Let the weakest fail. The Big Three needed a wake up call and so do there Unions. It may look like Armageddon is here, and even if it was what are you going to do about it? Take your money and put it in a safe 2-3% bearing account spread it around so it’s insured and liquid if you need it. Because you’ll want it handy because in late 09 or early 10 your going to want to pour it back in when the prices are low and things are moving upward. Or you can shake in your boots and hide it in your mattress and wonder why you lost it in a house fire.
Comment by Scott — Monday November 24, 2008 @ 8:51 pm